ECLAC sees recovery of Latin America trade
30 de outubro de 2017
São Paulo – Exports by Latin America and the Caribbean countries should increase 10% this year, according to forecast by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) that is part of the report International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2017, released this Monday (30) in Santiago, Chile.
Thus, the region leaves behind “half a decade of decline in the prices of its export basket and low increase of exported volume”, stated the UN commission in the report. The region’s imports will also increase after four consecutive years of decline in value, with a growth forecast of 7% in 2017.
According to the document, the recovery in exports will be led by the sales to China (23% higher), other Asia countries (17% higher) and the United States (10% above the number registered in 2016). There will also be an increase of 9% to intra-regional exports, while shipments to the European Union should increase 6%.
“Although there’s higher uncertainty in the macroeconomic, technologic and geopolitical scenarios in an international level, contributed to the trade increase of Latin America and the Caribbean the greater dynamism of the aggregate demand in some of its main trade partners, the higher price in many of its basic export products, and the dismantling of tariff and non-tariff restrictions in some of its countries,” says the report.
ECLAC believes that the Latin America and the Caribbean region should grow 1.2% this year and 2.2% in 2018, reversing a two-year recession.
According to the director of ECLAC’s office in Brazil, Carlos Mussi, Brazil will increase its exports in 18% this year and in 8.3% its imports. In the case of manufactured products, the increase in exports should stand at 20%. “This reflects a good moment of the Brazilian foreign trade, since we have been noticing more favorable prices and the increase in the volume exported, especially to Latin America,” said Mussi to Agência Brasil.
“The increase in imports also points to a certain recovery of the Brazilian economy, since we are buying more from the international market. This should be related to an increase of Brazilian consumption, as it has happened, and to something related to the modernization of certain sectors, due to the acquisition of machinery and equipment,” he added.
*Translated by Sérgio Kakitani