Tunisian Central Bank sees economy improving

28 de junho de 2016

Tunisia – Quarterly growth of Tunisia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should remain within the 0.6% to 1.2% range up until Q4 2017, according to the board of managers of the country’s Central Bank (BCT). Annual growth should be 2% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017, the bank said.

If agriculture is not factored in, GDP could reach 2.6% this year and 3.4% in the next – 2015 saw 0.3% growth.

The BCT forecasts a gradual return to pre-2015 growth levels, in a rebound underpinned by exporting industries such as the mechanical and electrical industries, textiles, clothing, leather and shoes. Demand from Tunisia’s leading trade partners, specially the Eurozone, is expected to pick up.

The BCT is also expecting a significant boost from industries that had performed poorly in 2015, including chemicals, mining, phosphates and energy.

On the other hand, tourism should recover very slowly, which should weigh down on GDP growth in 2016. A slight improvement is expected in 2017.

Agriculture, which is struggling with the lack of rainfall, should also detract from GDP this year before growing again 2017.

Although the outlook for Tunisia’s economy is one of improvement, some factors could hinder growth, including a weaker international demand, a relevant oil price hike, and the deterioration of geopolitical situations.

*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum